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New Zealand Mobile Market Passes 100% Penetration
03 Aug 2007 – As Vodafone and Telecom have announced their mid-year subscriber figures, the New Zealand mobile market has officially passed the 100% penetration mark. There were 4.25 million mobile subscribers in New Zealand at the end of June 2007, reflecting penetration of 101%. "The New Zealand mobile market is reasonably unique with a high level of maturity and above 100% penetration, yet only two operators present. Interestingly, we've hit 100% mobile penetration before Australia has. Last year, New Zealand saw an upheaval in the Internet sector, with the mobile space looking set to be next," said IDC telecommunications analyst, Darian Bird. While pricing has become more competitive, the growing occurrence of on-net plans has seen dual-device ownership become commonplace in the consumer market. As a result, a large proportion of the 12% subscriber growth over the last year stemmed from consumers with both Vodafone and Telecom accounts. "The next few years will be a pivotal period as the telecommunications market is evolving and converging with the IT space, we'll see a change in the balance of competition, “commented Mr Bird. The cellular services market share has changed since the beginning of 2005, after Telecom turned the tide of a rapidly shrinking share of the market. Vodafone saw its share of subscribers slip slightly to 53% by the middle of 2007, from 55% a year ago. "The time is ripe for a third operator to enter the mobile market in New Zealand, with regulatory changes imminent. Telecom will be distracted by its separation, while the new competitive landscape in the Internet space is opening the door for a mobile player to forge partnerships as ISPs struggle for survival. Also, Telecom's planned move down the WCDMA path will help drive competition for national mobile roaming, and the advent of mobile broadband will create opportunities for new players.” "Some of more developed countries around the world are already above 110% penetration, so we'd expect the mobile market in New Zealand to keep growing," said Darian Bird. IDC predicts that the mobile market will average 2.5% growth per year through 2011. By then, the country will have around 4.6 million subscribers spread across probably three mobile networks. "The wildcard will be how effective NZ Communications is and how quickly it can roll out a network. It appears they'll position themselves as a discount operator, but the response from Vodafone and Telecom will be aggressive, "The key for them will be attracting a large customer base as soon as possible, to gain some scale on their network. Otherwise, New Zealand's high mobile termination rates will eat into their profits,” added Mr Bird. IDC recently released its annual New Zealand Cellular Services 2007-2011 Forecast and Analysis. For further details, please contact IDC or see the following link: http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=NZ203201P For more information about purchasing this study, please contact: Tatiana Hinova |
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